3 matches are on Monday's card at Braga, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elmer Moller against Thiago Monteiro in the round of 32. Our calls: Monteiro over Moller, Piros over Boyer, Ajdukovic over Jianu.
Pick: Piros
Win probability: 63% Piros · Market: -165 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Tristan Boyer goes up against Zsombor Piros in the Braga round of 32. Zsombor Piros has won 7 of the last 10. Tristan Boyer has won 4 of the last 10.
Zsombor Piros is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Piros around 63%. The edge belongs to Piros — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Ajdukovic
Win probability: 54% Ajdukovic · Market: -136 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Monday's Braga round of 32 pits Duje Ajdukovic against Filip Cristian Jianu on clay. Duje Ajdukovic has won 4 of the last 10. Filip Cristian Jianu is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Ajdukovic's 69.5% behind the first serve (against 64.1% for Jianu) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Ajdukovic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Monteiro
Win probability: 55% Monteiro · Market: -111 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Monday's Braga round of 32 pits Elmer Moller against Thiago Monteiro on clay. Thiago Monteiro is 7-3 across recent matches. Elmer Moller has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Monteiro has been winning 72% of first-serve points to Moller's 64.3%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Monteiro is exactly that — a lean.
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