Beijing & Tokyo predictions, October 5, 2026: Medvedev vs Djokovic, Minaur vs Hurkacz

Monday's Beijing semifinal pits Daniil Medvedev against Novak Djokovic on hard. Novak Djokovic has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Daniil Medvedev is rolling — 7 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.

Novak Djokovic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Djokovic around 58%. Djokovic comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Djokovic is exactly that — a lean.

Monday's Beijing semifinal pits Alex De Minaur against Hubert Hurkacz on hard. Alex De Minaur brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Hubert Hurkacz has won 8 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Minaur comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Minaur gets the nod on the finest of margins.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Jiri Lehecka goes up against Valentin Vacherot in the Tokyo semifinal. Jiri Lehecka has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Valentin Vacherot comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Jiri Lehecka is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Lehecka around 58%. Lehecka comes in off a compressed schedule; Vacherot comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Lehecka fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Monday's Tokyo semifinal pits Carlos Alcaraz against Jaume Munar on hard. Carlos Alcaraz is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Jaume Munar has won 6 of the last 10.

Carlos Alcaraz simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Alcaraz win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Marie Bouzkova and Qinwen Zheng meet in the round of 32 at Beijing on Monday. Qinwen Zheng comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Marie Bouzkova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Zheng has been winning 72.3% of first-serve points to Bouzkova's 62%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Bouzkova arrives with very little recovery time. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Zheng.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Elina Svitolina goes up against Maria Sakkari in the Beijing round of 32. Elina Svitolina is 6-4 across recent matches. Maria Sakkari comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Svitolina — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Ann Li goes up against Belinda Bencic in the Beijing round of 32. Belinda Bencic comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Ann Li comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Belinda Bencic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Bencic around 70%. Li comes in off a compressed schedule; Bencic comes in off a compressed schedule. Bencic should have enough here, though Li has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Monday's Beijing round of 32 pits Elise Mertens against Jelena Ostapenko on hard. Elise Mertens has won 6 of the last 10. Jelena Ostapenko has won 6 of the last 10.

Elise Mertens simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Mertens should have enough here, though Ostapenko has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Iva Jovic and Kamilla Rakhimova meet in the round of 32 at Beijing on Monday. Iva Jovic brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Kamilla Rakhimova is 6-4 across recent matches.

Iva Jovic simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Jovic arrives with very little recovery time; Rakhimova comes in off a compressed schedule. Jovic should have enough here, though Rakhimova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Alina Charaeva goes up against Sonay Kartal in the Beijing round of 32. Sonay Kartal has won 6 of the last 10. Alina Charaeva comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Sonay Kartal simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Charaeva is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling; Kartal arrives with very little recovery time. The edge belongs to Kartal — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Donna Vekic goes up against Iga Swiatek in the Beijing round of 32. Iga Swiatek has won 8 of the last 10. Donna Vekic has won 3 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Vekic needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.