6 matches are on Tuesday's card at Antofagasta, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex Barrena against Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the round of 32. Our calls: Almeida over Barrena, Comesana over Guido, Varillas over Alves, Wild over Soto, Dias over Juan, Vera over Roncadelli.
Pick: Varillas
Win probability: 54% Varillas · Market: -119 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Tuesday's Antofagasta round of 32 pits Felipe Meligeni Alves against Juan Pablo Varillas on clay. Juan Pablo Varillas comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Felipe Meligeni Alves has won 4 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Varillas is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Dias
Win probability: 53% Dias · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Bautista Torres Juan goes up against Pedro Boscardin Dias in the Antofagasta round of 32. Pedro Boscardin Dias comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Bautista Torres Juan comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Dias's 65.5% behind the first serve (against 60.7% for Juan) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Dias fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Almeida
Win probability: 50% Almeida · Market: -123 · We call it in 3 sets (53%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Alex Barrena goes up against Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the Antofagasta round of 32. Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Alex Barrena is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Almeida fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Wild
Win probability: 69% Wild · Market: -373 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Tuesday's Antofagasta round of 32 pits Matias Soto against Thiago Seyboth Wild on clay. Thiago Seyboth Wild is rolling — 7 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Matias Soto limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Thiago Seyboth Wild simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Wild should have enough here, though Soto has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Comesana
Win probability: 55% Comesana · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Francisco Comesana goes up against Ivan Justo Guido in the Antofagasta round of 32. Francisco Comesana is 4-6 across recent matches. Ivan Justo Guido brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
Comesana's 71.5% behind the first serve (against 63.2% for Guido) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Comesana is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Vera
Win probability: 61% Vera · Market: -249 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Tuesday's Antofagasta round of 32 pits Franco Roncadelli against Tomas Barrios Vera on clay. Tomas Barrios Vera is 3-7 across recent matches. Franco Roncadelli is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Vera's 64.6% behind the first serve (against 59.1% for Roncadelli) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Vera — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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