4 matches are on Tuesday's card at Beijing, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Karolina Muchova against Naomi Osaka in the round of 16. Our calls: Muchova over Osaka, Noskova over Alexandrova, Andreeva over Snigur, Bartunkova over Kraus.
Pick: Bartunkova
Win probability: 75% Bartunkova · Market: -357 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (50%)
Nikola Bartunkova and Sinja Kraus meet in the round of 16 at Beijing on Tuesday. Nikola Bartunkova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Sinja Kraus is 5-5 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 68.8% versus 58.9% on first-serve points in Bartunkova's favor. If Bartunkova plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Noskova
Win probability: 71% Noskova · Market: -272 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (50%)
Tuesday's Beijing round of 16 pits Ekaterina Alexandrova against Linda Noskova on hard. Linda Noskova has won 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Ekaterina Alexandrova has won 6 of the last 10.
Linda Noskova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Noskova around 71%. Noskova should have enough here, though Alexandrova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Andreeva
Win probability: 67% Andreeva · Market: -471 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Daria Snigur and Mirra Andreeva meet in the round of 16 at Beijing on Tuesday. Mirra Andreeva has won 7 of the last 10. Daria Snigur has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Andreeva — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Muchova
Win probability: 60% Muchova · Market: -127 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Karolina Muchova goes up against Naomi Osaka in the Beijing round of 16. Karolina Muchova brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Naomi Osaka comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
The ledger favors Naomi Osaka, 4-2 across their 6 meetings with Karolina Muchova. On hard specifically it reads 4-1 Osaka — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Muchova.
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