3 matches are on Wednesday's card at Palermo (Italy), and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Michele Ribecai against Zdenek Kolar in the round of 16. Our calls: Kolar over Ribecai, Krumich over Forejtek, Canas over Martin.
Pick: Krumich
Win probability: 56% Krumich · Market: -101 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Wednesday's Palermo (Italy) round of 16 pits Jonas Forejtek against Martin Krumich on clay. Martin Krumich has won 4 of the last 10. Jonas Forejtek has dropped 5 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Martin Krumich is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Krumich around 56%. Krumich comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Krumich is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Kolar
Win probability: 58% Kolar · Market: -123 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Michele Ribecai goes up against Zdenek Kolar in the Palermo (Italy) round of 16. Zdenek Kolar has won 4 of the last 10. Michele Ribecai limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Zdenek Kolar is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Kolar around 58%. Ribecai comes in off a compressed schedule; Kolar comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Kolar gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Canas
Win probability: 67% Canas · Market: -315 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Wednesday's Palermo (Italy) round of 16 pits Alejandro Moro Canas against Andres Martin on clay. Alejandro Moro Canas has won 7 of the last 10. Andres Martin has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Alejandro Moro Canas simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Canas comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Canas.
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