3 matches are on Thursday's card at Antofagasta, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo against Pedro Boscardin Dias in the round of 16. Our calls: Angelo over Dias, Heide over Ribeiro, Vera over Tobon.
Pick: Heide
Win probability: 81% Heide · Market: -401 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (56%)
Thursday's Antofagasta round of 16 pits Eduardo Ribeiro against Gustavo Heide on clay. Gustavo Heide has won 8 of the last 10. Eduardo Ribeiro has won 4 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 71.7% versus 64.2% on first-serve points in Heide's favor. If Heide plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Angelo
Win probability: 55% Angelo · Market: -160 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Juan Carlos Prado Angelo goes up against Pedro Boscardin Dias in the Antofagasta round of 16. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo has won 6 of the last 10. Pedro Boscardin Dias comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Angelo comes in off a compressed schedule; Dias comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Angelo gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Vera
Win probability: 74% Vera · Market: -379 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when M. Tobon goes up against Tomas Barrios Vera in the Antofagasta round of 16. Tomas Barrios Vera comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. M. Tobon is 3-7 across recent matches.
Tomas Barrios Vera is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Vera around 74%. Tobon comes in off a compressed schedule; Vera comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Vera win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
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