2 matches are on Friday's card at Beijing, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elina Svitolina against Qinwen Zheng in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Svitolina over Zheng, Swiatek over Mertens.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 73% Swiatek · Market: -348 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Elise Mertens and Iga Swiatek meet in the quarterfinal at Beijing on Friday. Iga Swiatek is 8-2 across recent matches. Elise Mertens is 7-3 across recent matches.
Iga Swiatek simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Mertens comes in off a compressed schedule; Swiatek comes in off a compressed schedule. Mertens needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Svitolina
Win probability: 54% Svitolina · Market: -127 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Elina Svitolina goes up against Qinwen Zheng in the Beijing quarterfinal. Elina Svitolina brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Qinwen Zheng has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Svitolina fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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