4 matches are on Friday's card at Braga, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Lukas Neumayer against Max Alcala Gurri in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Neumayer over Gurri, Dodig over Moeller, Mikrut over Gaubas, Moller over Pereira.
Pick: Dodig
Win probability: 64% Dodig · Market: -182 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Marvin Moeller goes up against Matej Dodig in the Braga quarterfinal. Matej Dodig is 7-3 across recent matches. Marvin Moeller is 5-5 across recent matches.
Matej Dodig is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Dodig around 64%. Moeller comes in off a compressed schedule; Dodig comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Dodig — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Neumayer
Win probability: 52% Neumayer · Market: +119 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
Lukas Neumayer and Max Alcala Gurri meet in the quarterfinal at Braga on Friday. Lukas Neumayer is 5-5 across recent matches. Max Alcala Gurri is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Neumayer comes in off a compressed schedule; Gurri comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Neumayer is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Moller
Win probability: 71% Moller · Market: -189 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Friday's Braga quarterfinal pits Elmer Moller against T. Pereira on clay. Elmer Moller comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. T. Pereira comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Moller comes in off a compressed schedule; Pereira comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Moller.
Pick: Mikrut
Win probability: 70% Mikrut · Market: -190 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (35%)
Luka Mikrut and Vilius Gaubas meet in the quarterfinal at Braga on Friday. Luka Mikrut comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Vilius Gaubas has won 4 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.9% versus 65% on first-serve points in Mikrut's favor. Mikrut comes in off a compressed schedule; Gaubas comes in off a compressed schedule. Mikrut should have enough here, though Gaubas has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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