A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Katarina Zavatska goes up against Renata Zarazua in the Suzhou quarterfinal. Renata Zarazua has won 3 of the last 10. Katarina Zavatska comes in at 2 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Zavatska comes in off a compressed schedule. Zavatska needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.