2 matches are on Monday's card at Rovereto, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Lucia Bronzetti against Mona Barthel in the round of 32. Our calls: Barthel over Bronzetti, Knutson over Arango.
Pick: Knutson
Win probability: 51% Knutson · Market: -126 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Emiliana Arango and Gabriela Andrea Knutson meet in the round of 32 at Rovereto on Monday. Gabriela Andrea Knutson comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Emiliana Arango limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Knutson's 65.4% behind the first serve (against 58% for Arango) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Knutson is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Barthel
Win probability: 51% Barthel · Market: -126 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Lucia Bronzetti goes up against Mona Barthel in the Rovereto round of 32. Mona Barthel comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Lucia Bronzetti limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Barthel has been winning 66% of first-serve points to Bronzetti's 60.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Barthel gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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