2 matches are on Monday's card at Santa Cruz 2, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex Barrena against Bautista Torres Juan in the round of 32. Our calls: Barrena over Juan, Comesana over Hardt.
Pick: Barrena
Win probability: 61% Barrena · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Alex Barrena goes up against Bautista Torres Juan in the Santa Cruz 2 round of 32. Alex Barrena has won 8 of the last 10. Bautista Torres Juan has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Barrena has been winning 64% of first-serve points to Juan's 60.7%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Barrena.
Pick: Comesana
Win probability: 66% Comesana · Market: -308 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
Francisco Comesana and Nick Hardt meet in the round of 32 at Santa Cruz 2 on Monday. Francisco Comesana limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Nick Hardt comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Comesana has been winning 71.6% of first-serve points to Hardt's 64%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Comesana should have enough here, though Hardt has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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