2 matches are on Thursday's card at Shanghai, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex De Minaur against Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Zverev over Minaur, Fokina over Gea.
Pick: Fokina
Win probability: 52% Fokina · Market: -105 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alejandro Davidovich Fokina goes up against Arthur Gea in the Shanghai quarterfinal. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Arthur Gea has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fokina is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 64% Zverev · Market: -179 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Alex De Minaur and Alexander Zverev meet in the quarterfinal at Shanghai on Thursday. Alexander Zverev brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Alex De Minaur brings a 8-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Zverev has been winning 73.7% of first-serve points to Minaur's 69%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Zverev — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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