2 matches are on Friday's card at Mallorca, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Rebeka Masarova against Tamara Zidansek in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Masarova over Zidansek, Garcia over Samson.
The boldest call on the card: Garcia over Samson — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: GarciaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Samson the favorite; our numbers say Garcia.
Win probability: 53% Garcia · Market: +137 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Friday's Mallorca quarterfinal pits Andrea Lazaro Garcia against Laura Samson on clay. Andrea Lazaro Garcia has won 6 of the last 10. Laura Samson has won 5 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Samson comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Garcia fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Masarova
Win probability: 51% Masarova · Market: -101 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Friday's Mallorca quarterfinal pits Rebeka Masarova against Tamara Zidansek on clay. Rebeka Masarova has won 5 of the last 10. Tamara Zidansek has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Masarova has been winning 67.6% of first-serve points to Zidansek's 58.2%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Masarova is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling; Zidansek comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Masarova is exactly that — a lean.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.