6 matches are on Friday's card at Shanghai and Wuhan, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniil Medvedev against Tommy Paul in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Medvedev over Paul, Jodar over Ruud, Svitolina over Kartal, Swiatek over Li, Shnaider over Ostapenko, Sakkari over Chwalinska.
October 15, 2026 results: 14-9 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 55% Medvedev · Market: -192 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul meet in the quarterfinal at Shanghai on Friday. Daniil Medvedev brings a 10-match winning streak into this one, 10-0 across the last ten. Tommy Paul has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
Hold strength tells the story — 72.8% versus 69.4% on first-serve points in Medvedev's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Medvedev fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Jodar
Win probability: 54% Jodar · Market: -120 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Casper Ruud and Rafael Jodar meet in the quarterfinal at Shanghai on Friday. Rafael Jodar is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Casper Ruud is 7-3 across recent matches.
Rafael Jodar is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Jodar around 54%. Little separates them; Jodar gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Svitolina
Win probability: 62% Svitolina · Market: -186 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Elina Svitolina goes up against Sonay Kartal in the Wuhan quarterfinal. Elina Svitolina has won 6 of the last 10. Sonay Kartal is 7-3 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Svitolina comes in off a compressed schedule; Kartal comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Svitolina — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 74% Swiatek · Market: -360 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Friday's Wuhan quarterfinal pits Ann Li against Iga Swiatek on hard. Iga Swiatek is 7-3 across recent matches. Ann Li comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Li comes in off a compressed schedule; Swiatek comes in off a compressed schedule. Li needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 65% Shnaider · Market: -199 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Friday's Wuhan quarterfinal pits Diana Shnaider against Jelena Ostapenko on hard. Diana Shnaider is 7-3 across recent matches. Jelena Ostapenko has won 5 of the last 10.
Diana Shnaider simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Shnaider comes in off a compressed schedule; Ostapenko comes in off a compressed schedule. Shnaider should have enough here, though Ostapenko has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Sakkari
Win probability: 56% Sakkari · Market: -121 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Maja Chwalinska and Maria Sakkari meet in the quarterfinal at Wuhan on Friday. Maria Sakkari has won 6 of the last 10. Maja Chwalinska has won 5 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 65% versus 58.3% on first-serve points in Sakkari's favor. Chwalinska comes in off a compressed schedule; Sakkari comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Sakkari is exactly that — a lean.
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