5 matches are on Monday's card at Brussels, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Holger Rune against Raphael Collignon in the round of 32. Our calls: Rune over Collignon, Zandschulp over Majchrzak, Hanfmann over Damm, Munar over Cina, Michelsen over Guerrieri.
Pick: Zandschulp
Win probability: 54% Zandschulp · Market: -145 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Monday's Brussels round of 32 pits Botic Van De Zandschulp against Kamil Majchrzak on hard. Botic Van De Zandschulp comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Kamil Majchrzak is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Zandschulp fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Rune
Win probability: 53% Rune · Market: -145 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Holger Rune goes up against Raphael Collignon in the Brussels round of 32. Holger Rune is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (7 of the last 10). Raphael Collignon has dropped 6 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Rune is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Michelsen
Win probability: 72% Michelsen · Market: -355 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (48%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Alex Michelsen goes up against Andrea Guerrieri in the Brussels round of 32. Alex Michelsen has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Andrea Guerrieri has won 5 of the last 10.
Michelsen's 70% behind the first serve (against 66% for Guerrieri) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Michelsen.
Pick: Hanfmann
Win probability: 68% Hanfmann · Market: -110 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
Monday's Brussels round of 32 pits Martin Damm against Yannick Hanfmann on hard. Yannick Hanfmann has won 5 of the last 10. Martin Damm comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Yannick Hanfmann is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Hanfmann around 68%. Hanfmann should have enough here, though Damm has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Munar
Win probability: 68% Munar · Market: -226 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Monday's Brussels round of 32 pits Federico Cina against Jaume Munar on hard. Jaume Munar has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Federico Cina comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Munar should have enough here, though Cina has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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