3 matches are on Monday's card at Cali, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Nicolas Jarry against Tomas Barrios Vera in the round of 32. Our calls: Jarry over Vera, Varillas over Galan, Bueno over Casanova.
The boldest call on the card: Jarry over Vera — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Bueno
Win probability: 58% Bueno · Market: -164 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Gonzalo Bueno and Hernan Casanova meet in the round of 32 at Cali on Monday. Gonzalo Bueno is 6-4 across recent matches. Hernan Casanova is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (4 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Bueno gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Varillas
Win probability: 51% Varillas · Market: -102 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Daniel Elahi Galan goes up against Juan Pablo Varillas in the Cali round of 32. Juan Pablo Varillas limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Daniel Elahi Galan comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Varillas gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: JarryUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Vera; our numbers say Jarry.
Win probability: 54% Jarry · Market: +170 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Nicolas Jarry goes up against Tomas Barrios Vera in the Cali round of 32. Nicolas Jarry has won 3 of the last 10. Tomas Barrios Vera comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Jarry's 74.5% behind the first serve (against 64.5% for Vera) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jarry is exactly that — a lean.
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