7 matches are on Tuesday's card at Cali, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Hugo Dellien against Manuel La Serna Juan in the round of 32. Our calls: Dellien over Juan, Dedura over Kicker, Alves over Ficovich, Comesana over Hardt, Mendez over Taverna, Villanueva over Tobon, and 1 more.
Pick: Heide
Win probability: 85% Heide · Market: -739 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (55%)
Tuesday's Cali round of 32 pits Alex Hernandez against Gustavo Heide on clay. Gustavo Heide comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Alex Hernandez is 2-8 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Heide has been winning 71.6% of first-serve points to Hernandez's 64%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Heide win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Comesana
Win probability: 72% Comesana · Market: -297 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Francisco Comesana goes up against Nick Hardt in the Cali round of 32. Francisco Comesana has won 5 of the last 10. Nick Hardt has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Comesana has been winning 71.4% of first-serve points to Hardt's 63.9%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Hardt needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Dellien
Win probability: 68% Dellien · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Hugo Dellien goes up against Manuel La Serna Juan in the Cali round of 32. Hugo Dellien comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Manuel La Serna Juan is 5-5 across recent matches.
Hugo Dellien is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Dellien around 68%. Dellien should have enough here, though Juan has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Alves
Win probability: 62% Alves · Market: -282 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Felipe Meligeni Alves goes up against Juan Pablo Ficovich in the Cali round of 32. Felipe Meligeni Alves is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10). Juan Pablo Ficovich is 1-9 across recent matches.
Felipe Meligeni Alves is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Alves around 62%. The edge belongs to Alves — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Mendez
Win probability: 64% Mendez · Market: -245 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez and Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna meet in the round of 32 at Cali on Tuesday. Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez has won 5 of the last 10. Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. The edge belongs to Mendez — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Villanueva
Win probability: 56% Villanueva · Market: -125 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Tuesday's Cali round of 32 pits Gonzalo Villanueva against M. Tobon on clay. Gonzalo Villanueva limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. M. Tobon is 3-7 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Villanueva is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Dedura
Win probability: 59% Dedura · Market: -191 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Diego Dedura goes up against Nicolas Kicker in the Cali round of 32. Diego Dedura has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Nicolas Kicker has won 7 of the last 10.
Diego Dedura simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Dedura is exactly that — a lean.
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