5 matches are on Tuesday's card at Florence (Italy), and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Felix Gill against Filip Misolic in the round of 32. Our calls: Misolic over Gill, Nedic over Piraino, Cadenasso over Kopp, Vasami over Ribecai, Jianu over Romano.
The boldest call on the card: Vasami over Ribecai — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Misolic
Win probability: 59% Misolic · Market: +105 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Felix Gill and Filip Misolic meet in the round of 32 at Florence (Italy) on Tuesday. Filip Misolic comes in at 2 wins from the last ten. Felix Gill is 4-6 across recent matches.
Filip Misolic simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Misolic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: VasamiUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Ribecai the favorite; our numbers say Vasami.
Win probability: 59% Vasami · Market: +130 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Tuesday's Florence (Italy) round of 32 pits Jacopo Vasami against Michele Ribecai on clay. Jacopo Vasami has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Michele Ribecai is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Vasami's 70.8% behind the first serve (against 62.6% for Ribecai) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Vasami fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Cadenasso
Win probability: 60% Cadenasso · Market: -180 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Gianluca Cadenasso goes up against Sandro Kopp in the Florence (Italy) round of 32. Gianluca Cadenasso has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Sandro Kopp limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Gianluca Cadenasso simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Cadenasso.
Pick: Jianu
Win probability: 56% Jianu · Market: -105 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Filip Cristian Jianu goes up against Filippo Romano in the Florence (Italy) round of 32. Filip Cristian Jianu has dropped 5 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Filippo Romano has dropped 5 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
Filip Cristian Jianu simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Jianu gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Nedic
Win probability: 55% Nedic · Market: -173 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Tuesday's Florence (Italy) round of 32 pits Andrej Nedic against Gabriele Piraino on clay. Andrej Nedic comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Gabriele Piraino is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10).
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Nedic fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.