4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Guangzhou, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Dylan Hara Friend Jay against James Mccabe in the round of 16. Our calls: Jay over Mccabe, Zhou over Zhang, Ilagan over Sultanov, Wong over Samrej.
Pick: Jay
Win probability: 60% Jay · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Wednesday's Guangzhou round of 16 pits Dylan Hara Friend Jay against James Mccabe on hard. Dylan Hara Friend Jay comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. James Mccabe comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Dylan Hara Friend Jay simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Jay comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Jay.
Pick: Wong
Win probability: 76% Wong · Market: -657 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (51%)
Wednesday's Guangzhou round of 16 pits Coleman Wong against Kasidit Samrej on hard. Coleman Wong comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Kasidit Samrej comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Wong has been winning 74.2% of first-serve points to Samrej's 71%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Samrej comes in off a compressed schedule. Samrej needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Ilagan
Win probability: 56% Ilagan · Market: -172 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Andre Ilagan goes up against Khumoun Sultanov in the Guangzhou round of 16. Andre Ilagan comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Khumoun Sultanov has won 6 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Sultanov comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Ilagan is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Zhou
Win probability: 54% Zhou · Market: -118 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
Yi Zhou and Zhizhen Zhang meet in the round of 16 at Guangzhou on Wednesday. Yi Zhou has won 4 of the last 10. Zhizhen Zhang limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 1 wins in 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Zhou comes in off a compressed schedule; Zhang comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Zhou gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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