4 matches are on Thursday's card at Brussels, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jiri Lehecka against Raphael Collignon in the round of 16. Our calls: Lehecka over Collignon, Fils over Munar, Bergs over Dzumhur, Michelsen over Goffin.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 76% Fils · Market: -266 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Arthur Fils goes up against Jaume Munar in the Brussels round of 16. Arthur Fils has won 7 of the last 10. Jaume Munar is 6-4 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 73.9% versus 68.7% on first-serve points in Fils's favor. If Fils plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 57% Lehecka · Market: -271 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jiri Lehecka goes up against Raphael Collignon in the Brussels round of 16. Jiri Lehecka is 7-3 across recent matches. Raphael Collignon is 4-6 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Lehecka is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Bergs
Win probability: 65% Bergs · Market: -334 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Thursday's Brussels round of 16 pits Damir Dzumhur against Zizou Bergs on hard. Zizou Bergs has won 6 of the last 10. Damir Dzumhur has won 5 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
The serve is where this match separates: Bergs has been winning 72.5% of first-serve points to Dzumhur's 64.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bergs.
Pick: Michelsen
Win probability: 72% Michelsen · Market: -770 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
Alex Michelsen and David Goffin meet in the round of 16 at Brussels on Thursday. Alex Michelsen is 6-4 across recent matches. David Goffin is searching for form, having lost 8 in a row (2 of the last 10).
Alex Michelsen is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Michelsen around 72%. Goffin comes in off a compressed schedule. Goffin needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
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