✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 57% on Jiri Lehecka, who won 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 57% Lehecka · Market: -271 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jiri Lehecka goes up against Raphael Collignon in the Brussels round of 16. Jiri Lehecka is 7-3 across recent matches. Raphael Collignon is 4-6 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Lehecka is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Diana Shnaider was our 56% pick, and won 7-5 6-4.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 56% Shnaider · Market: -136 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alexandra Eala goes up against Diana Shnaider in the Ningbo round of 16. Diana Shnaider is 7-3 across recent matches. Alexandra Eala is 5-5 across recent matches.
Diana Shnaider is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shnaider around 56%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Shnaider is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Iva Jovic was our 57% pick, and won 6-4 6-3.
Pick: Jovic
Win probability: 57% Jovic · Market: -179 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Iva Jovic goes up against Jasmine Paolini in the Ningbo round of 16. Iva Jovic is 7-3 across recent matches. Jasmine Paolini comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Jovic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 54% on Valentin Vacherot; Luca Van Assche won 2-6 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Vacherot
Win probability: 54% Vacherot · Market: -130 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
Thursday's Lyon (France) round of 16 pits Luca Van Assche against Valentin Vacherot on clay. Valentin Vacherot has won 6 of the last 10. Luca Van Assche is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Hold strength tells the story — 72.5% versus 66.4% on first-serve points in Vacherot's favor. Little separates them; Vacherot gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Not gradedThis match ended in a walkover, advancing Arthur Fils. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 76% Fils · Market: -266 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Arthur Fils goes up against Jaume Munar in the Brussels round of 16. Arthur Fils has won 7 of the last 10. Jaume Munar is 6-4 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 73.9% versus 68.7% on first-serve points in Fils's favor. If Fils plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Elena Rybakina. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 87% Rybakina · Market: -547 · We call it in 2 sets (71%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (64%)
Elena Rybakina and Polina Kudermetova meet in the round of 16 at Ningbo on Thursday. Elena Rybakina comes in at 9 wins from the last ten. Polina Kudermetova has won 4 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 70% versus 65.2% on first-serve points in Rybakina's favor. Anything other than a Rybakina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Katerina Siniakova was our 59% pick, and won 6-4 6-1.
Pick: Siniakova
Win probability: 59% Siniakova · Market: -178 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Katerina Siniakova and Magda Linette meet in the round of 16 at Osaka on Thursday. Katerina Siniakova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Magda Linette has won 2 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Siniakova is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Zizou Bergs at 65% before the match, and Zizou Bergs won 6-2 6-4.
Pick: Bergs
Win probability: 65% Bergs · Market: -334 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Thursday's Brussels round of 16 pits Damir Dzumhur against Zizou Bergs on hard. Zizou Bergs has won 6 of the last 10. Damir Dzumhur has won 5 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
The serve is where this match separates: Bergs has been winning 72.5% of first-serve points to Dzumhur's 64.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bergs.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Daniel Altmaier was our 56% pick, and won 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Altmaier
Win probability: 56% Altmaier · Market: +109 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Borna Gojo and Daniel Altmaier meet in the round of 16 at Lyon (France) on Thursday. Daniel Altmaier comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Borna Gojo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Altmaier gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 72% on Alex Michelsen, who won 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Michelsen
Win probability: 72% Michelsen · Market: -770 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
Alex Michelsen and David Goffin meet in the round of 16 at Brussels on Thursday. Alex Michelsen is 6-4 across recent matches. David Goffin is searching for form, having lost 8 in a row (2 of the last 10).
Alex Michelsen is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Michelsen around 72%. Goffin comes in off a compressed schedule. Goffin needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 68% on Ann Li, who won 6-3 6-1.
Pick: Li
Win probability: 68% Li · Market: -176 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
Ann Li and Zeynep Sonmez meet in the round of 16 at Osaka on Thursday. Ann Li comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Zeynep Sonmez has won 4 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 65.3% versus 60.6% on first-serve points in Li's favor. The edge belongs to Li — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Flavio Cobolli at 75% before the match, and Flavio Cobolli won 6-2 6-4.
Pick: Cobolli
Win probability: 75% Cobolli · Market: -238 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
Thursday's Lyon (France) round of 16 pits Flavio Cobolli against Stan Wawrinka on clay. Flavio Cobolli limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Stan Wawrinka limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Cobolli win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Antonia Ruzic. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Pick: Ruzic
Win probability: 55% Ruzic · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Antonia Ruzic and Kayla Day meet in the round of 16 at Osaka on Thursday. Antonia Ruzic has won 3 of the last 10. Kayla Day comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Ruzic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Belinda Bencic at 84% lost to Katarzyna Kawa (7-5 6-2).
Pick: Bencic
Win probability: 84% Bencic · Market: -682 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (59%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Belinda Bencic goes up against Katarzyna Kawa in the Ningbo round of 16. Belinda Bencic is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Katarzyna Kawa has won 3 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 66.3% versus 57.8% on first-serve points in Bencic's favor. Anything other than a Bencic win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Brandon Nakashima at 70% before the match, and Brandon Nakashima won 6-4 6-3.
Pick: Nakashima
Win probability: 70% Nakashima · Market: -174 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
Thursday's Lyon (France) round of 16 pits Brandon Nakashima against Kyrian Jacquet on clay. Brandon Nakashima is 6-4 across recent matches. Kyrian Jacquet is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Nakashima has been winning 74.5% of first-serve points to Jacquet's 69.9%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Nakashima should have enough here, though Jacquet has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 75% on Taylor Fritz, who won 6-2 7-5.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 75% Fritz · Market: -421 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (52%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Pierre Hugues Herbert goes up against Taylor Fritz in the Lyon (France) round of 16. Taylor Fritz is 5-5 across recent matches. Pierre Hugues Herbert is 2-8 across recent matches.
Taylor Fritz simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Herbert comes in off a compressed schedule. Herbert needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.