4 matches are on Friday's card at Brussels, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex Michelsen against Arthur Fils in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Fils over Michelsen, Lehecka over Griekspoor, Bergs over Struff, Cerundolo over Chidekh.
Pick: Cerundolo
Win probability: 69% Cerundolo · Market: -155 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
Friday's Brussels quarterfinal pits Clement Chidekh against Francisco Cerundolo on hard. Francisco Cerundolo has won 6 of the last 10. Clement Chidekh comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
Francisco Cerundolo is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Cerundolo around 69%. The edge belongs to Cerundolo — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 72% Fils · Market: -166 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (48%)
Alex Michelsen and Arthur Fils meet in the quarterfinal at Brussels on Friday. Arthur Fils has won 7 of the last 10. Alex Michelsen has won 6 of the last 10.
Fils's 73.9% behind the first serve (against 70% for Michelsen) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fils.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 65% Lehecka · Market: -237 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
Friday's Brussels quarterfinal pits Jiri Lehecka against Tallon Griekspoor on hard. Jiri Lehecka has won 7 of the last 10. Tallon Griekspoor is 5-5 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Lehecka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Bergs
Win probability: 57% Bergs · Market: -190 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jan Lennard Struff goes up against Zizou Bergs in the Brussels quarterfinal. Zizou Bergs has won 6 of the last 10. Jan Lennard Struff has won 6 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Bergs fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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