11 matches are on Friday's card across 3 events, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Diana Shnaider against Iva Jovic in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Shnaider over Jovic, Alexandrova over Fernandez, Fils over Michelsen, Lehecka over Griekspoor, Bejlek over Bouzkova, Bergs over Struff, and 5 more.
October 22, 2026 results: 14-10 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 53% Shnaider · Market: +116 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Friday's Ningbo quarterfinal pits Diana Shnaider against Iva Jovic on hard. Diana Shnaider has won 7 of the last 10. Iva Jovic is 7-3 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Shnaider fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Alexandrova
Win probability: 50% Alexandrova · Market: -126 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Ekaterina Alexandrova and Leylah Fernandez meet in the quarterfinal at Ningbo on Friday. Ekaterina Alexandrova has won 6 of the last 10. Leylah Fernandez comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Alexandrova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 72% Fils · Market: -166 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (48%)
Alex Michelsen and Arthur Fils meet in the quarterfinal at Brussels on Friday. Arthur Fils has won 7 of the last 10. Alex Michelsen has won 6 of the last 10.
Fils's 73.9% behind the first serve (against 70% for Michelsen) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fils.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 65% Lehecka · Market: -237 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
Friday's Brussels quarterfinal pits Jiri Lehecka against Tallon Griekspoor on hard. Jiri Lehecka has won 7 of the last 10. Tallon Griekspoor is 5-5 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Lehecka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Bejlek
Win probability: 50% Bejlek · Market: +146 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Friday's Ningbo quarterfinal pits Marie Bouzkova against Sara Bejlek on hard. Sara Bejlek has won 5 of the last 10. Marie Bouzkova has won 7 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bejlek is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Bergs
Win probability: 57% Bergs · Market: -190 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jan Lennard Struff goes up against Zizou Bergs in the Brussels quarterfinal. Zizou Bergs has won 6 of the last 10. Jan Lennard Struff has won 6 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Bergs fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Krueger
Win probability: 56% Krueger · Market: -139 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Ashlyn Krueger goes up against Talia Gibson in the Osaka quarterfinal. Ashlyn Krueger is 6-4 across recent matches. Talia Gibson has won 5 of the last 10.
Ashlyn Krueger is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Krueger around 56%. Little separates them; Krueger gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Li
Win probability: 67% Li · Market: -121 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Ann Li goes up against Lilli Tagger in the Osaka quarterfinal. Ann Li has won 7 of the last 10. Lilli Tagger comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Li comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Li — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Cerundolo
Win probability: 69% Cerundolo · Market: -155 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
Friday's Brussels quarterfinal pits Clement Chidekh against Francisco Cerundolo on hard. Francisco Cerundolo has won 6 of the last 10. Clement Chidekh comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
Francisco Cerundolo is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Cerundolo around 69%. The edge belongs to Cerundolo — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 93% Rybakina · Market: -918 · We call it in 2 sets (72%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (69%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Elena Rybakina goes up against Katarzyna Kawa in the Ningbo quarterfinal. Elena Rybakina comes in at 9 wins from the last ten. Katarzyna Kawa has won 3 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Rybakina has been winning 70% of first-serve points to Kawa's 57.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Kawa needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Boulter
Win probability: 70% Boulter · Market: -165 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Antonia Ruzic and Katie Boulter meet in the quarterfinal at Osaka on Friday. Katie Boulter comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Antonia Ruzic comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.5% versus 61.2% on first-serve points in Boulter's favor. The edge belongs to Boulter — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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