4 matches are on Friday's card at Guangzhou, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Coleman Wong against Dylan Hara Friend Jay in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Wong over Jay, Schoolkate over Smith, Zhou over Ilagan, Cui over Santillan.
The boldest call on the card: Schoolkate over Smith — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Wong
Win probability: 58% Wong · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Coleman Wong and Dylan Hara Friend Jay meet in the quarterfinal at Guangzhou on Friday. Coleman Wong is 5-5 across recent matches. Dylan Hara Friend Jay comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Wong has been winning 74.5% of first-serve points to Jay's 70.5%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Wong gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Zhou
Win probability: 52% Zhou · Market: -150 · We call it in 3 sets (53%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (28%)
Friday's Guangzhou quarterfinal pits Andre Ilagan against Yi Zhou on hard. Yi Zhou comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Andre Ilagan has won 6 of the last 10.
Zhou's 71.6% behind the first serve (against 64.8% for Ilagan) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Zhou fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Cui
Win probability: 52% Cui · Market: -175 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Akira Santillan goes up against Jie Cui in the Guangzhou quarterfinal. Jie Cui has won 4 of the last 10. Akira Santillan comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Santillan comes in off a compressed schedule; Cui arrives with very little recovery time. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cui fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: SchoolkateUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Smith; our numbers say Schoolkate.
Win probability: 51% Schoolkate · Market: -153 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Friday's Guangzhou quarterfinal pits Keegan Smith against Tristan Schoolkate on hard. Tristan Schoolkate is 5-5 across recent matches. Keegan Smith comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Schoolkate has been winning 75.2% of first-serve points to Smith's 70.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Smith comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Schoolkate fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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