3 matches are on Friday's card at Lisbon, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elmer Moller against Henrique Rocha in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Rocha over Moller, Dodig over Trungelliti, Ritschard over Nagal.
Pick: Dodig
Win probability: 69% Dodig · Market: -144 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (35%)
Friday's Lisbon quarterfinal pits Marco Trungelliti against Matej Dodig on clay. Matej Dodig is 9-1 across recent matches. Marco Trungelliti is 7-3 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Dodig has been winning 70.6% of first-serve points to Trungelliti's 67.4%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Dodig — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Ritschard
Win probability: 61% Ritschard · Market: -180 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alexander Ritschard goes up against Sumit Nagal in the Lisbon quarterfinal. Alexander Ritschard comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Sumit Nagal comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 68.9% versus 62.1% on first-serve points in Ritschard's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Ritschard.
Pick: Rocha
Win probability: 56% Rocha · Market: -149 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Friday's Lisbon quarterfinal pits Elmer Moller against Henrique Rocha on clay. Henrique Rocha has won 8 of the last 10. Elmer Moller has won 7 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Rocha has been winning 66.9% of first-serve points to Moller's 63.7%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Rocha gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.