3 matches are on Friday's card at Osaka, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Ashlyn Krueger against Talia Gibson in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Krueger over Gibson, Li over Tagger, Boulter over Ruzic.
Pick: Krueger
Win probability: 56% Krueger · Market: -139 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Ashlyn Krueger goes up against Talia Gibson in the Osaka quarterfinal. Ashlyn Krueger is 6-4 across recent matches. Talia Gibson has won 5 of the last 10.
Ashlyn Krueger is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Krueger around 56%. Little separates them; Krueger gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Boulter
Win probability: 70% Boulter · Market: -165 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Antonia Ruzic and Katie Boulter meet in the quarterfinal at Osaka on Friday. Katie Boulter comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Antonia Ruzic comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.5% versus 61.2% on first-serve points in Boulter's favor. The edge belongs to Boulter — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Li
Win probability: 67% Li · Market: -121 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Ann Li goes up against Lilli Tagger in the Osaka quarterfinal. Ann Li has won 7 of the last 10. Lilli Tagger comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Li comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Li — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.