2 matches are on Saturday's card at Ningbo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Diana Shnaider against Elena Rybakina in the semifinal. Our calls: Rybakina over Shnaider, Fernandez over Bouzkova.
Pick: Fernandez
Win probability: 51% Fernandez · Market: +105 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Saturday's Ningbo semifinal pits Leylah Fernandez against Marie Bouzkova on hard. Leylah Fernandez is 8-2 across recent matches. Marie Bouzkova is 7-3 across recent matches.
Leylah Fernandez is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fernandez around 51%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fernandez fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 73% Rybakina · Market: -172 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (50%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Diana Shnaider goes up against Elena Rybakina in the Ningbo semifinal. Elena Rybakina comes in at 9 wins from the last ten. Diana Shnaider has won 7 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Rybakina has been winning 70% of first-serve points to Shnaider's 62.5%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Shnaider comes in off a compressed schedule; Rybakina comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Rybakina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
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