One match is on Sunday's card at Lyon (France), and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Lorenzo Musetti against Taylor Fritz in the final. Our calls: Fritz over Musetti.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 59% Fritz · Market: -181 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Sunday brings the Lyon (France) final: Lorenzo Musetti against Taylor Fritz. Taylor Fritz comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Lorenzo Musetti has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Fritz has been winning 74.6% of first-serve points to Musetti's 69.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fritz is exactly that — a lean.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.