5 matches are on Sunday's card across 5 events, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elena Rybakina against Leylah Fernandez in the final. Our calls: Rybakina over Fernandez, Fritz over Musetti, Krueger over Siniakova, Griekspoor over Struff, Medvedev over Basilashvili.
The boldest call on the card: Krueger over Siniakova — the market disagrees with us there.
October 24, 2026 results: 6-6 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 79% Rybakina · Market: -281 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (56%)
Sunday brings the Ningbo final: Elena Rybakina against Leylah Fernandez. Elena Rybakina comes in at 9 wins from the last ten. Leylah Fernandez is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.
Hold strength tells the story — 70% versus 64.7% on first-serve points in Rybakina's favor. Fernandez needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 59% Fritz · Market: -181 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Sunday brings the Lyon (France) final: Lorenzo Musetti against Taylor Fritz. Taylor Fritz comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Lorenzo Musetti has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Fritz has been winning 74.6% of first-serve points to Musetti's 69.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fritz is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: KruegerUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Siniakova the favorite; our numbers say Krueger.
Win probability: 51% Krueger · Market: +123 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
The Osaka title is on the line on Sunday, when Ashlyn Krueger meets Katerina Siniakova. Ashlyn Krueger is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Katerina Siniakova is 5-5 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Krueger gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Griekspoor
Win probability: 56% Griekspoor · Market: -122 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Sunday brings the Brussels final: Jan Lennard Struff against Tallon Griekspoor. Tallon Griekspoor brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten. Jan Lennard Struff brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
Tallon Griekspoor simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Struff comes in off a compressed schedule; Griekspoor comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Griekspoor gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 75% Medvedev · Market: -341 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Sunday brings the Almaty final: Daniil Medvedev against Nikoloz Basilashvili. Daniil Medvedev has won 9 of the last 10. Nikoloz Basilashvili has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
The serve is where this match separates: Medvedev has been winning 72.8% of first-serve points to Basilashvili's 68.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Basilashvili comes in off a compressed schedule. If Medvedev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.