5 matches are on Monday's card at Basel, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Mariano Navone against Valentin Vacherot in the round of 32. Our calls: Vacherot over Navone, Rune over Halys, Borges over Brunold, Cerundolo over Altmaier, Ruud over Stricker.
Pick: Ruud
Win probability: 71% Ruud · Market: -216 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (50%)
Casper Ruud and Dominic Stricker meet in the round of 32 at Basel on Monday. Casper Ruud is 6-4 across recent matches. Dominic Stricker has won 6 of the last 10.
Casper Ruud simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Ruud — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Vacherot
Win probability: 64% Vacherot · Market: -173 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Monday's Basel round of 32 pits Mariano Navone against Valentin Vacherot on hard. Valentin Vacherot is 6-4 across recent matches. Mariano Navone comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Vacherot has been winning 72.5% of first-serve points to Navone's 62.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Vacherot should have enough here, though Navone has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Rune
Win probability: 56% Rune · Market: -102 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Monday's Basel round of 32 pits Holger Rune against Quentin Halys on hard. Holger Rune has dropped 2 straight and sits at 7-3 over the last ten. Quentin Halys is 4-6 across recent matches.
Holger Rune is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Rune around 56%. Little separates them; Rune gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Borges
Win probability: 59% Borges · Market: -193 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Monday's Basel round of 32 pits Mika Brunold against Nuno Borges on hard. Nuno Borges is 5-5 across recent matches. Mika Brunold is rolling — 5 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
The serve is where this match separates: Borges has been winning 71.4% of first-serve points to Brunold's 66.9%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Borges is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Cerundolo
Win probability: 56% Cerundolo · Market: -123 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Daniel Altmaier and Juan Manuel Cerundolo meet in the round of 32 at Basel on Monday. Juan Manuel Cerundolo has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Daniel Altmaier has won 4 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cerundolo is exactly that — a lean.
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