2 matches are on Monday's card at Brest, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Gabriel Diallo against Nishesh Basavareddy in the round of 32. Our calls: Diallo over Basavareddy, Virtanen over Martineau.
The boldest call on the card: Diallo over Basavareddy — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Virtanen
Win probability: 61% Virtanen · Market: -198 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Monday's Brest round of 32 pits Matteo Martineau against Otto Virtanen on hard. Otto Virtanen comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Matteo Martineau comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Otto Virtanen simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Virtanen should have enough here, though Martineau has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: DialloUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Basavareddy the favorite; our numbers say Diallo.
Win probability: 51% Diallo · Market: +139 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (26%)
Gabriel Diallo and Nishesh Basavareddy meet in the round of 32 at Brest on Monday. Gabriel Diallo comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Nishesh Basavareddy limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Gabriel Diallo is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Diallo around 51%. Little separates them; Diallo gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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