4 matches are on Tuesday's card at Brest, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Francesco Maestrelli against Moez Echargui in the round of 32. Our calls: Maestrelli over Echargui, Piros over Djere, Gojo over Paris, Kjaer over Ribecai.
Pick: Maestrelli
Win probability: 53% Maestrelli · Market: -139 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Francesco Maestrelli and Moez Echargui meet in the round of 32 at Brest on Tuesday. Francesco Maestrelli has won 5 of the last 10. Moez Echargui is 5-5 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Maestrelli is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Kjaer
Win probability: 71% Kjaer · Market: -302 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Michele Ribecai and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer meet in the round of 32 at Brest on Tuesday. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has won 6 of the last 10. Michele Ribecai has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Kjaer has been winning 68.6% of first-serve points to Ribecai's 62.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Kjaer should have enough here, though Ribecai has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Gojo
Win probability: 76% Gojo · Market: -269 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (47%)
Tuesday's Brest round of 32 pits Borna Gojo against Tom Paris on hard. Borna Gojo is 6-4 across recent matches. Tom Paris is searching for form, having lost 6 in a row (3 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Gojo has been winning 74.9% of first-serve points to Paris's 70.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. If Gojo plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Piros
Win probability: 50% Piros · Market: +100 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
Laslo Djere and Zsombor Piros meet in the round of 32 at Brest on Tuesday. Zsombor Piros comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Laslo Djere comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Piros gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.