3 matches are on Tuesday's card at Curitiba (Brazil), and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Julia Riera against Rebeka Masarova in the round of 32. Our calls: Masarova over Riera, Carle over Pigossi, Grabher over Alves.
Pick: Masarova
Win probability: 60% Masarova · Market: -169 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Tuesday's Curitiba (Brazil) round of 32 pits Julia Riera against Rebeka Masarova on clay. Rebeka Masarova has won 5 of the last 10. Julia Riera limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10.
Masarova's 67.4% behind the first serve (against 61.9% for Riera) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Masarova.
Pick: Grabher
Win probability: 84% Grabher · Market: -360 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (60%)
Carolina Alves and Julia Grabher meet in the round of 32 at Curitiba (Brazil) on Tuesday. Julia Grabher has won 7 of the last 10. Carolina Alves has dropped 5 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Grabher has been winning 61% of first-serve points to Alves's 56.6%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Alves needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Carle
Win probability: 61% Carle · Market: -160 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Laura Pigossi goes up against Maria Lourdes Carle in the Curitiba (Brazil) round of 32. Maria Lourdes Carle has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Laura Pigossi is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (2 of the last 10).
Maria Lourdes Carle is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Carle around 61%. The edge belongs to Carle — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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