8 matches are on Tuesday's card at Guangzhou, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Janice Tjen against Polina Kudermetova in the round of 32. Our calls: Tjen over Kudermetova, Volynets over Yastremska, Linette over Zakharova, Quevedo over Kenin, Liu over Ruzic, Teichmann over Waltert, and 2 more.
Pick: Tagger
Win probability: 78% Tagger · Market: -888 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (55%)
Tuesday's Guangzhou round of 32 pits Lilli Tagger against Venus Williams on hard. Lilli Tagger is 4-6 across recent matches. Venus Williams has dropped 10 straight and sits at 0-10 over the last ten.
Lilli Tagger simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Tagger win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Sonmez
Win probability: 59% Sonmez · Market: -205 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Tuesday's Guangzhou round of 32 pits Sara Sorribes Tormo against Zeynep Sonmez on hard. Zeynep Sonmez is 3-7 across recent matches. Sara Sorribes Tormo is 4-6 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 60.4% versus 55.9% on first-serve points in Sonmez's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Sonmez is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Quevedo
Win probability: 57% Quevedo · Market: -114 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Tuesday's Guangzhou round of 32 pits Kaitlin Quevedo against Sofia Kenin on hard. Kaitlin Quevedo is 7-3 across recent matches. Sofia Kenin is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Kaitlin Quevedo simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Quevedo fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Linette
Win probability: 55% Linette · Market: -108 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Anastasia Zakharova goes up against Magda Linette in the Guangzhou round of 32. Magda Linette has won 2 of the last 10. Anastasia Zakharova has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Linette has been winning 63.3% of first-serve points to Zakharova's 59.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Linette is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Teichmann
Win probability: 55% Teichmann · Market: +112 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Jil Teichmann goes up against Simona Waltert in the Guangzhou round of 32. Jil Teichmann comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Simona Waltert has won 5 of the last 10.
Jil Teichmann is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Teichmann around 55%. Little separates them; Teichmann gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Tjen
Win probability: 53% Tjen · Market: -146 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Janice Tjen and Polina Kudermetova meet in the round of 32 at Guangzhou on Tuesday. Janice Tjen limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Polina Kudermetova has won 4 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 68.5% versus 65.2% on first-serve points in Tjen's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tjen fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Volynets
Win probability: 53% Volynets · Market: -124 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Dayana Yastremska and Katie Volynets meet in the round of 32 at Guangzhou on Tuesday. Katie Volynets comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Dayana Yastremska is 4-6 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Volynets gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Liu
Win probability: 52% Liu · Market: -116 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Tuesday's Guangzhou round of 32 pits Antonia Ruzic against Claire Liu on hard. Claire Liu limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Antonia Ruzic has won 3 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Liu is exactly that — a lean.
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