7 matches are on Tuesday's card at Ningbo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elias Ymer against Yi Zhou in the round of 32. Our calls: Zhou over Ymer, Broom over Santillan, Smith over Hsu, Matsuoka over Sun, Mccabe over Moriya, Schoolkate over Imamura, and 1 more.
Pick: Broom
Win probability: 53% Broom · Market: -155 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Akira Santillan goes up against Charles Broom in the Ningbo round of 32. Charles Broom has won 5 of the last 10. Akira Santillan has won 4 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Broom gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Schoolkate
Win probability: 79% Schoolkate · Market: -496 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
Tuesday's Ningbo round of 32 pits Masamichi Imamura against Tristan Schoolkate on hard. Tristan Schoolkate has won 4 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall. Masamichi Imamura has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 75.5% versus 66.8% on first-serve points in Schoolkate's favor. Imamura needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Smith
Win probability: 67% Smith · Market: -141 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Keegan Smith and Yu Hsiou Hsu meet in the round of 32 at Ningbo on Tuesday. Keegan Smith has won 6 of the last 10. Yu Hsiou Hsu is searching for form, having lost 7 in a row (2 of the last 10).
Hold strength tells the story — 70.7% versus 65.8% on first-serve points in Smith's favor. The edge belongs to Smith — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Matsuoka
Win probability: 57% Matsuoka · Market: -116 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Fajing Sun and Hayato Matsuoka meet in the round of 32 at Ningbo on Tuesday. Hayato Matsuoka limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Fajing Sun has won 3 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Matsuoka fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Broady
Win probability: 69% Broady · Market: -235 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Tuesday's Ningbo round of 32 pits Liam Broady against Sergey Fomin on hard. Liam Broady comes in at 2 wins from the last ten. Sergey Fomin limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Broady.
Pick: Zhou
Win probability: 61% Zhou · Market: -211 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Tuesday's Ningbo round of 32 pits Elias Ymer against Yi Zhou on hard. Yi Zhou is 6-4 across recent matches. Elias Ymer has dropped 4 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Zhou.
Pick: Mccabe
Win probability: 67% Mccabe · Market: -178 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
Hiroki Moriya and James Mccabe meet in the round of 32 at Ningbo on Tuesday. James Mccabe has won 3 of the last 10. Hiroki Moriya limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Mccabe's 72.3% behind the first serve (against 63.3% for Moriya) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Mccabe.
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