6 matches are on Wednesday's card at Basel, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Holger Rune against Hubert Hurkacz in the round of 16. Our calls: Hurkacz over Rune, Djokovic over Humbert, Ruud over Borges, Hanfmann over Struff, Fritz over Hijikata, Shapovalov over Bertola.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 76% Fritz · Market: -561 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (51%)
Rinky Hijikata and Taylor Fritz meet in the round of 32 at Basel on Wednesday. Taylor Fritz has won 5 of the last 10. Rinky Hijikata has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Fritz's 74.6% behind the first serve (against 68.6% for Hijikata) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Fritz plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Shapovalov
Win probability: 77% Shapovalov · Market: -250 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (50%)
Denis Shapovalov and Remy Bertola meet in the round of 32 at Basel on Wednesday. Denis Shapovalov comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Remy Bertola limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.7% versus 69.9% on first-serve points in Shapovalov's favor. Bertola needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Djokovic
Win probability: 73% Djokovic · Market: -221 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (51%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Novak Djokovic goes up against Ugo Humbert in the Basel round of 32. Novak Djokovic is 6-4 across recent matches. Ugo Humbert limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Novak Djokovic simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Humbert needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Ruud
Win probability: 61% Ruud · Market: -174 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
Wednesday's Basel round of 16 pits Casper Ruud against Nuno Borges on hard. Casper Ruud is 7-3 across recent matches. Nuno Borges has won 6 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Ruud should have enough here, though Borges has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Hanfmann
Win probability: 54% Hanfmann · Market: +115 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Jan Lennard Struff goes up against Yannick Hanfmann in the Basel round of 32. Yannick Hanfmann has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Jan Lennard Struff is 6-4 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Hanfmann fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Hurkacz
Win probability: 60% Hurkacz · Market: -162 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Wednesday's Basel round of 16 pits Holger Rune against Hubert Hurkacz on hard. Hubert Hurkacz has won 8 of the last 10. Holger Rune has won 7 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 75.9% versus 70.7% on first-serve points in Hurkacz's favor. Little separates them; Hurkacz gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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