6 matches are on Wednesday's card at Brest, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Borna Gojo against Dino Prizmic in the round of 16. Our calls: Prizmic over Gojo, Samuel over Torre, Gaston over Glinka, Kjaer over Cina, Tabur over Romano, Diallo over Maestrelli.
Pick: Samuel
Win probability: 69% Samuel · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Wednesday's Brest round of 32 pits Inaki Montes-De La Torre against Toby Samuel on hard. Toby Samuel is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10). Inaki Montes-De La Torre comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.9% versus 64.6% on first-serve points in Samuel's favor. Samuel should have enough here, though Torre has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Prizmic
Win probability: 53% Prizmic · Market: -148 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Borna Gojo goes up against Dino Prizmic in the Brest round of 16. Dino Prizmic has won 6 of the last 10. Borna Gojo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Gojo comes in off a compressed schedule; Prizmic comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Prizmic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Tabur
Win probability: 62% Tabur · Market: -244 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Wednesday's Brest round of 32 pits Clement Tabur against Filippo Romano on hard. Clement Tabur is 4-6 across recent matches. Filippo Romano is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (2 of the last 10).
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tabur.
Pick: Kjaer
Win probability: 60% Kjaer · Market: -122 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Federico Cina goes up against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the Brest round of 16. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Federico Cina is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Kjaer comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Kjaer.
Pick: Gaston
Win probability: 60% Gaston · Market: -174 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Daniil Glinka goes up against Hugo Gaston in the Brest round of 32. Hugo Gaston limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Daniil Glinka has won 6 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Gaston.
Pick: Diallo
Win probability: 69% Diallo · Market: -274 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
Wednesday's Brest round of 16 pits Francesco Maestrelli against Gabriel Diallo on hard. Gabriel Diallo comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Francesco Maestrelli is 5-5 across recent matches.
Gabriel Diallo is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Diallo around 69%. The edge belongs to Diallo — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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