2 matches are on Wednesday's card at Ningbo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Yu Hsiou Hsu against Yuta Shimizu in the round of 16. Our calls: Shimizu over Hsu, Mayot over Uchida.
The boldest call on the card: Shimizu over Hsu — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Mayot
Win probability: 84% Mayot · Market: -622 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Wednesday's Ningbo round of 16 pits Harold Mayot against Kaichi Uchida on hard. Harold Mayot comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Kaichi Uchida has won 1 of the last 10.
Harold Mayot is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Mayot around 84%. If Mayot plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: ShimizuUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Hsu the favorite; our numbers say Shimizu.
Win probability: 54% Shimizu · Market: +122 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (28%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Yu Hsiou Hsu goes up against Yuta Shimizu in the Ningbo round of 16. Yuta Shimizu comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Yu Hsiou Hsu has dropped 7 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Shimizu fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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