4 matches are on Friday's card at Basel, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Arthur Fils against Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Fils over Fritz, Vacherot over Rune, Lehecka over Kym, Borges over Struff.
The boldest call on the card: Vacherot over Rune — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 66% Lehecka · Market: -258 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jerome Kym goes up against Jiri Lehecka in the Basel quarterfinal. Jiri Lehecka is 7-3 across recent matches. Jerome Kym is 7-3 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Lehecka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 53% Fils · Market: -104 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Arthur Fils goes up against Taylor Fritz in the Basel quarterfinal. Arthur Fils has won 6 of the last 10. Taylor Fritz has won 5 of the last 10.
Arthur Fils simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fils fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Borges
Win probability: 53% Borges · Market: +112 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Jan Lennard Struff and Nuno Borges meet in the quarterfinal at Basel on Friday. Nuno Borges comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Jan Lennard Struff comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Borges fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: VacherotUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Rune the favorite; our numbers say Vacherot.
Win probability: 51% Vacherot · Market: +134 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
Holger Rune and Valentin Vacherot meet in the quarterfinal at Basel on Friday. Valentin Vacherot is 7-3 across recent matches. Holger Rune is 7-3 across recent matches.
Valentin Vacherot simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Vacherot fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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