2 matches are on Saturday's card at Basel, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Taylor Fritz against Valentin Vacherot in the semifinal. Our calls: Fritz over Vacherot, Lehecka over Struff.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 68% Lehecka · Market: -180 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
Jan Lennard Struff and Jiri Lehecka meet in the semifinal at Basel on Saturday. Jiri Lehecka brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Jan Lennard Struff brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
Jiri Lehecka simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Struff comes in off a compressed schedule; Lehecka comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Lehecka.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 57% Fritz · Market: -260 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Taylor Fritz and Valentin Vacherot meet in the semifinal at Basel on Saturday. Taylor Fritz comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Valentin Vacherot is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Vacherot comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fritz fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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