3 matches are on Sunday's card at Queretaro, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Bianca Andreescu against Tatjana Maria in the final. Our calls: Andreescu over Maria, Maria over Ferro, Andreescu over Monnet.
Pick: Andreescu
Win probability: 76% Andreescu · Market: -387 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Bianca Andreescu goes up against Carole Monnet in the Queretaro semifinal. Bianca Andreescu has won 7 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Carole Monnet has won 5 of the last 10.
Andreescu's 63.5% behind the first serve (against 57.6% for Monnet) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Andreescu comes in off a compressed schedule. Monnet needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Maria
Win probability: 53% Maria · Market: -105 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Fiona Ferro goes up against Tatjana Maria in the Queretaro semifinal. Tatjana Maria has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall. Fiona Ferro brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 65.5% versus 59.4% on first-serve points in Maria's favor. Ferro comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Maria is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Andreescu
Win probability: 63% Andreescu · Market: -163 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
It all comes down to Sunday at Queretaro, where Bianca Andreescu faces Tatjana Maria for the trophy. Bianca Andreescu has won 8 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Tatjana Maria is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Bianca Andreescu is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Andreescu around 63%. Andreescu comes in off a compressed schedule; Maria comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Andreescu.
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