5 matches are on Monday's card at Hong Kong, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Kaitlin Quevedo against Paula Badosa in the round of 32. Our calls: Badosa over Quevedo, Boulter over Golubic, Volynets over Sasnovich, Prozorova over Liu, Sakkari over Lee.
Pick: Boulter
Win probability: 54% Boulter · Market: -129 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Katie Boulter and Viktorija Golubic meet in the round of 32 at Hong Kong on Monday. Katie Boulter comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Viktorija Golubic is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Boulter has been winning 67.5% of first-serve points to Golubic's 58%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Boulter is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Badosa
Win probability: 52% Badosa · Market: -173 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Monday's Hong Kong round of 32 pits Kaitlin Quevedo against Paula Badosa on hard. Paula Badosa comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Kaitlin Quevedo has won 8 of the last 10.
Badosa's 65% behind the first serve (against 61.8% for Quevedo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Badosa is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Sakkari
Win probability: 69% Sakkari · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
Monday's Hong Kong round of 32 pits Carol Young Suh Lee against Maria Sakkari on hard. Maria Sakkari limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Carol Young Suh Lee is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (5 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Sakkari.
Pick: Volynets
Win probability: 59% Volynets · Market: +131 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Aliaksandra Sasnovich goes up against Katie Volynets in the Hong Kong round of 32. Katie Volynets is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Aliaksandra Sasnovich is 5-5 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Volynets fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Prozorova
Win probability: 51% Prozorova · Market: -115 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Monday's Hong Kong round of 32 pits Claire Liu against Tatiana Prozorova on hard. Tatiana Prozorova has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Claire Liu has won 6 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Prozorova is exactly that — a lean.
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