5 matches are on Tuesday's card at Charlottesville, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexis Galarneau against Daniel Milavsky in the round of 32. Our calls: Galarneau over Milavsky, Zheng over Trotter, Martin over Kozlov, Rehberg over Svajda, Royer over Gray.
Pick: Galarneau
Win probability: 52% Galarneau · Market: +102 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
Tuesday's Charlottesville round of 32 pits Alexis Galarneau against Daniel Milavsky on hard. Alexis Galarneau has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Daniel Milavsky comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Galarneau gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Zheng
Win probability: 68% Zheng · Market: -259 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
James Trotter and Michael Zheng meet in the round of 32 at Charlottesville on Tuesday. Michael Zheng has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. James Trotter limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Zheng should have enough here, though Trotter has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Rehberg
Win probability: 61% Rehberg · Market: -147 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Tuesday's Charlottesville round of 32 pits Max Hans Rehberg against Trevor Svajda on hard. Max Hans Rehberg has won 4 of the last 10. Trevor Svajda has dropped 3 straight and sits at 1-9 over the last ten.
Max Hans Rehberg simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Rehberg should have enough here, though Svajda has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Royer
Win probability: 71% Royer · Market: -234 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Alastair Gray goes up against Valentin Royer in the Charlottesville round of 32. Valentin Royer is 5-5 across recent matches. Alastair Gray limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Valentin Royer simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Royer.
Pick: Martin
Win probability: 51% Martin · Market: +114 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Andres Martin and Stefan Kozlov meet in the round of 32 at Charlottesville on Tuesday. Andres Martin limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Stefan Kozlov is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Martin is exactly that — a lean.
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