Tennis predictions, November 3, 2026: Ruud vs Jodar, Rune vs Paul
By The Maiden Desk · November 3, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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24 matches are on Tuesday's card across 3 events, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Casper Ruud against Rafael Jodar in the round of 32. Our calls: Jodar over Ruud, Tsitsipas over Tien, Rublev over Etcheverry, Berrettini over Nakashima, Djokovic over Vacherot, Cirstea over Timofeeva, and 12 more.
The boldest call on the card: Selekhmeteva over Kostovic — the market disagrees with us there.
Win probability: 55% Jodar · Market: -167 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Tuesday's Paris round of 32 pits Casper Ruud against Rafael Jodar on clay. Rafael Jodar is 7-3 across recent matches. Casper Ruud comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jodar is exactly that — a lean.
Holger Rune and Tommy Paul meet in the round of 64 at Paris on Tuesday. Tommy Paul comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Holger Rune is 6-4 across recent matches.
Win probability: 56% Tsitsipas · Market: +122 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Tuesday's Paris round of 64 pits Learner Tien against Stefanos Tsitsipas on clay. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 7 of the last 10. Learner Tien is 4-6 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.8% versus 68.2% on first-serve points in Tsitsipas's favor. Little separates them; Tsitsipas gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 65% on Andrey Rublev; Tomas Martin Etcheverry won 6-4 6-7(4) 7-6(3).
Pick: Rublev
Win probability: 65% Rublev · Market: -209 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Andrey Rublev goes up against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the Paris round of 64. Andrey Rublev limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Tomas Martin Etcheverry has dropped 6 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Rublev's 74.2% behind the first serve (against 71.2% for Etcheverry) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Rublev — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Upset call: the market makes Nakashima the favorite; our numbers say Berrettini.
Win probability: 52% Berrettini · Market: +145 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Tuesday's Paris round of 64 pits Brandon Nakashima against Matteo Berrettini on clay. Matteo Berrettini is 5-5 across recent matches. Brandon Nakashima has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Matteo Berrettini is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Berrettini around 52%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Berrettini is exactly that — a lean.
Win probability: 70% Djokovic · Market: -190 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (45%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Novak Djokovic goes up against Valentin Vacherot in the Paris round of 64. Novak Djokovic comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Valentin Vacherot has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.
Novak Djokovic is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Djokovic around 70%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Djokovic.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Ben Shelton goes up against Cameron Norrie in the Paris round of 32. Ben Shelton has won 5 of the last 10. Cameron Norrie is 4-6 across recent matches.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 59% on Sorana Cirstea, who won 7-6(6) 1-6 7-5.
Pick: Cirstea
Win probability: 59% Cirstea · Market: -202 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Maria Timofeeva goes up against Sorana Cirstea in the Hong Kong round of 32. Sorana Cirstea limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Maria Timofeeva comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cirstea fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Arthur Rinderknech. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Pick: Cerundolo
Win probability: 62% Cerundolo · Market: -162 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
Arthur Rinderknech and Francisco Cerundolo meet in the round of 64 at Paris on Tuesday. Francisco Cerundolo limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Arthur Rinderknech is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Francisco Cerundolo simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Cerundolo — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 60% on Quentin Halys, who won 7-6(6) 7-5.
Pick: Halys
Win probability: 60% Halys · Market: -143 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Tuesday's Paris round of 64 pits Arthur Fery against Quentin Halys on clay. Quentin Halys limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Arthur Fery is 5-5 across recent matches.
Halys's 77.6% behind the first serve (against 68.8% for Fery) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Halys is exactly that — a lean.
Tuesday's Paris round of 64 pits Alex Michelsen against Jiri Lehecka on clay. Jiri Lehecka brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Alex Michelsen has won 5 of the last 10.
Tuesday's Paris round of 64 pits Arthur Gea against Jan Lennard Struff on clay. Jan Lennard Struff comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Arthur Gea is rolling — 4 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.
Win probability: 68% Eala · Market: -418 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Alexandra Eala and Alycia Parks meet in the round of 32 at Hong Kong on Tuesday. Alexandra Eala comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Alycia Parks is 4-6 across recent matches.
Alexandra Eala simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Eala.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Dayana Yastremska at 53%, but Zeynep Sonmez won 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Yastremska
Win probability: 53% Yastremska · Market: +102 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Dayana Yastremska goes up against Zeynep Sonmez in the Hong Kong round of 32. Dayana Yastremska comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Zeynep Sonmez has won 3 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Yastremska is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Maya Joint was our 54% pick, and won 7-5 6-2.
Pick: Joint
Win probability: 54% Joint · Market: -270 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Maddison Inglis and Maya Joint meet in the round of 32 at Hong Kong on Tuesday. Maya Joint comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Maddison Inglis is 5-5 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Joint gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Tereza Valentova was our 67% pick, and won 6-3 7-5.
Pick: Valentova
Win probability: 67% Valentova · Market: -330 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Himeno Sakatsume and Tereza Valentova meet in the round of 32 at Hong Kong on Tuesday. Tereza Valentova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Himeno Sakatsume has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Valentova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 62% on Talia Gibson, who won 7-6(5) 6-1.
Pick: Gibson
Win probability: 62% Gibson · Market: -391 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Oleksandra Oliynykova goes up against Talia Gibson in the Hong Kong round of 32. Talia Gibson has won 6 of the last 10. Oleksandra Oliynykova has won 4 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Gibson has been winning 64.3% of first-serve points to Oliynykova's 57.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Gibson.
Benjamin Bonzi and Taylor Fritz meet in the round of 64 at Paris on Tuesday. Taylor Fritz comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Benjamin Bonzi is 6-4 across recent matches.
Win probability: 50% Jacquemot · Market: +109 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
Elsa Jacquemot and Lucrezia Stefanini meet in the round of 32 at Chennai on Tuesday. Elsa Jacquemot limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Lucrezia Stefanini has won 6 of the last 10.
Jacquemot's 64.3% behind the first serve (against 55.3% for Stefanini) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Jacquemot fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 57% on Oksana Selekhmeteva, who won 6-4 6-3.
Pick: SelekhmetevaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Kostovic the favorite; our numbers say Selekhmeteva.
Win probability: 57% Selekhmeteva · Market: +127 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Oksana Selekhmeteva and Teodora Kostovic meet in the round of 32 at Chennai on Tuesday. Oksana Selekhmeteva has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Teodora Kostovic has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Oksana Selekhmeteva is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Selekhmeteva around 57%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Selekhmeteva fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Win probability: 73% Fokina · Market: -246 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Moise Kouame meet in the round of 64 at Paris on Tuesday. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is rolling — 5 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Moise Kouame brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Fokina around 73%. Anything other than a Fokina win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 52% on Panna Udvardy; Robin Montgomery won 6-4 1-6 6-1.
Pick: Udvardy
Win probability: 52% Udvardy · Market: +203 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Panna Udvardy and Robin Montgomery meet in the round of 32 at Chennai on Tuesday. Panna Udvardy is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (2 of the last 10). Robin Montgomery has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Udvardy gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Win probability: 75% Badosa · Market: -276 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (52%)
Elena Pridankina and Paula Badosa meet in the round of 32 at Hong Kong on Tuesday. Paula Badosa is 6-4 across recent matches. Elena Pridankina limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 65% versus 57.1% on first-serve points in Badosa's favor. Pridankina needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Mai Hontama and Mananchaya Sawangkaew meet in the round of 32 at Chennai on Tuesday. Mananchaya Sawangkaew is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10). Mai Hontama has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
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