4 matches are on Tuesday's card at Chennai, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elsa Jacquemot against Lucrezia Stefanini in the round of 32. Our calls: Jacquemot over Stefanini, Selekhmeteva over Kostovic, Udvardy over Montgomery, Sawangkaew over Hontama.
The boldest call on the card: Selekhmeteva over Kostovic — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: SelekhmetevaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Kostovic the favorite; our numbers say Selekhmeteva.
Win probability: 57% Selekhmeteva · Market: +127 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Oksana Selekhmeteva and Teodora Kostovic meet in the round of 32 at Chennai on Tuesday. Oksana Selekhmeteva has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Teodora Kostovic has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Oksana Selekhmeteva is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Selekhmeteva around 57%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Selekhmeteva fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Udvardy
Win probability: 52% Udvardy · Market: +203 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Panna Udvardy and Robin Montgomery meet in the round of 32 at Chennai on Tuesday. Panna Udvardy is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (2 of the last 10). Robin Montgomery has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Udvardy gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Jacquemot
Win probability: 50% Jacquemot · Market: +109 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
Elsa Jacquemot and Lucrezia Stefanini meet in the round of 32 at Chennai on Tuesday. Elsa Jacquemot limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Lucrezia Stefanini has won 6 of the last 10.
Jacquemot's 64.3% behind the first serve (against 55.3% for Stefanini) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Jacquemot fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Sawangkaew
Win probability: 65% Sawangkaew · Market: -166 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
Mai Hontama and Mananchaya Sawangkaew meet in the round of 32 at Chennai on Tuesday. Mananchaya Sawangkaew is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (3 of the last 10). Mai Hontama has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Sawangkaew's 63.4% behind the first serve (against 58% for Hontama) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Sawangkaew — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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