4 matches are on Tuesday's card at Taipei, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Lloyd Harris against Yosuke Watanuki in the round of 32. Our calls: Harris over Watanuki, Sakellaridis over Shimizu, Hsu over Jasika, Shimabukuro over Poljicak.
Pick: Harris
Win probability: 64% Harris · Market: -147 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (39%)
Tuesday's Taipei round of 32 pits Lloyd Harris against Yosuke Watanuki on hard. Lloyd Harris is 7-3 across recent matches. Yosuke Watanuki has won 4 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Harris — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Sakellaridis
Win probability: 57% Sakellaridis · Market: -124 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Stefanos Sakellaridis and Yuta Shimizu meet in the round of 32 at Taipei on Tuesday. Stefanos Sakellaridis has won 3 of the last 10. Yuta Shimizu has won 4 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sakellaridis fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Hsu
Win probability: 56% Hsu · Market: -153 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (30%)
Tuesday's Taipei round of 32 pits Omar Jasika against Yu Hsiou Hsu on hard. Yu Hsiou Hsu is 3-7 across recent matches. Omar Jasika has won 4 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Hsu gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Shimabukuro
Win probability: 68% Shimabukuro · Market: -264 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Tuesday's Taipei round of 32 pits Mili Poljicak against Sho Shimabukuro on hard. Sho Shimabukuro is 5-5 across recent matches. Mili Poljicak has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Sho Shimabukuro is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shimabukuro around 68%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Shimabukuro.
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