5 matches are on Wednesday's card at Hong Kong, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Aliaksandra Sasnovich against Talia Gibson in the round of 16. Our calls: Sakkari over Joint, Fernandez over Kenin.
Pick: Fernandez
Win probability: 75% Fernandez · Market: -251 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Wednesday's Hong Kong round of 32 pits Leylah Fernandez against Sofia Kenin on hard. Leylah Fernandez is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Sofia Kenin has dropped 5 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
Leylah Fernandez is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fernandez around 75%. If Fernandez plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Alina Charaeva and Antonia Ruzic meet in the round of 32 at Hong Kong on Wednesday. Alina Charaeva limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Antonia Ruzic has dropped 2 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Claire Liu goes up against Katie Boulter in the Hong Kong round of 16. Katie Boulter is 5-5 across recent matches. Claire Liu is 6-4 across recent matches.
Pick: Sakkari
Win probability: 64% Sakkari · Market: -177 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Maria Sakkari and Maya Joint meet in the round of 16 at Hong Kong on Wednesday. Maria Sakkari comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Maya Joint is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Sakkari has been winning 65% of first-serve points to Joint's 59.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Joint comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Sakkari — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Wednesday's Hong Kong round of 16 pits Aliaksandra Sasnovich against Talia Gibson on hard. Aliaksandra Sasnovich comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Talia Gibson has won 6 of the last 10.
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