9 matches are on Wednesday's card across 3 events, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Zverev against Lorenzo Musetti in the round of 32. Our calls: Zverev over Musetti, Fils over Machac, Medvedev over Buse, Fernandez over Kenin.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 65% Zverev · Market: -213 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alexander Zverev goes up against Lorenzo Musetti in the Paris round of 32. Alexander Zverev comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Lorenzo Musetti comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Zverev's 73.7% behind the first serve (against 69.3% for Musetti) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Zverev.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 72% Fils · Market: -182 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (50%)
Wednesday's Paris round of 32 pits Arthur Fils against Tomas Machac on clay. Arthur Fils comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Tomas Machac is 5-5 across recent matches.
Fils's 74% behind the first serve (against 68.6% for Machac) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Fils should have enough here, though Machac has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 67% Medvedev · Market: -456 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Daniil Medvedev goes up against Ignacio Buse in the Paris round of 32. Daniil Medvedev has won 8 of the last 10. Ignacio Buse has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Medvedev has been winning 72.8% of first-serve points to Buse's 68.2%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Medvedev.
Wednesday's Hong Kong round of 16 pits Aliaksandra Sasnovich against Talia Gibson on hard. Aliaksandra Sasnovich comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Talia Gibson has won 6 of the last 10.
Maria Sakkari and Maya Joint meet in the round of 16 at Hong Kong on Wednesday. Maria Sakkari comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Maya Joint is 5-5 across recent matches.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Claire Liu goes up against Katie Boulter in the Hong Kong round of 16. Katie Boulter is 5-5 across recent matches. Claire Liu is 6-4 across recent matches.
Oksana Selekhmeteva and Polina Kudermetova meet in the round of 16 at Chennai on Wednesday. Polina Kudermetova has won 4 of the last 10. Oksana Selekhmeteva is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Alina Charaeva and Antonia Ruzic meet in the round of 32 at Hong Kong on Wednesday. Alina Charaeva limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Antonia Ruzic has dropped 2 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
Pick: Fernandez
Win probability: 75% Fernandez · Market: -252 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Wednesday's Hong Kong round of 32 pits Leylah Fernandez against Sofia Kenin on hard. Leylah Fernandez is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Sofia Kenin has dropped 5 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
Leylah Fernandez is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fernandez around 75%. If Fernandez plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
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