Thursday's Guangzhou round of 16 pits Claire Liu against Katerina Siniakova on hard. Katerina Siniakova is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Claire Liu comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Katerina Siniakova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Siniakova comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Siniakova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.