US Open · R128 · Hard · best of 3 · Aug 31, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs. Katerina Siniakova — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · August 31, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Elisabetta Cocciaretto goes up against Katerina Siniakova in the US Open first round. Elisabetta Cocciaretto has won 4 of the last 10. Katerina Siniakova has won 4 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cocciaretto fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-106(51.6% Cocciaretto)
Market+170(37.0% Cocciaretto)
Sources: . These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
1776
Katerina Siniakova
1769
Overall rating
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
1796
Katerina Siniakova
1813
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Katerina Siniakova
1st serve in
66%
62.5%
1st serve points won
60.8%
61.1%
2nd serve points won
47.2%
44.4%
Form
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
4–6
Katerina Siniakova
4–6
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
Who is predicted to win Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Katerina Siniakova?
Maiden gives Elisabetta Cocciaretto a 52% chance to beat Katerina Siniakova in the US Open first round on August 31, 2026.
How confident is the Elisabetta Cocciaretto pick?
52% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 52%, picks in that range have won 59% of the time (111 so far). See the track record page for the full table.